A Tough (No Ice?) Season!
One of the best ways to get an overall sense of the ice conditions on Green Bay and area lakes is to access the MODIS satellite images of Lake Michigan on the NOAA Coast Watch Great Lakes website. These are real color images developed by the University of Wisconsin Madison Space Science and Engineering Center (SSEC). The images are produced from instruments located on satellites dedicated to Earth observation. They are some of the highest resolution images readily available to the general public. Unfortunately, being real-time visual images, The Earth’s surface can only be seen on clear or nearly cloudless days. That’s been a problem this winter. We have gone weeks at a time where the only evidence of the Sun existing was a slightly brighter region in the thick expanse of grey clouds overhead. Blue skies made an appearance only in our memory and on screen savers. This week, we did get fleeting break in the overcast for a few hours, which was enough to capture a glimpse of the surface of Green Bay via MODIS images. Although there was a cloud layer over Lake Michigan and scattered clouds in much of northeastern Wisconsin, the Door County shoreline along the Bay could be seen clearly. What I saw was not encouraging.
Most of Green Bay is dark blue open water. Sturgeon Bay and areas south shows some bright white, indicating ice cover. However, from personal observation, much of this ice is broken and unstable, particularly after the recent icebreaking activity conducted by the USCG Mobile Bay. Ice cover can be seen off Sherwood Point and Sawyer Harbor. I have seen some anglers in those areas, but we also read about the guys who pushed the ice season. (See the last HAR). Small patches of white can be seen in the bays at Egg Harbor, Eagle Harbor, Sister Bay, and Ellison Bay. This may seem promising, but direct observation indicates the ice is not fishable even a short distance from shore. Close inspection shows that even Kangaroo Lake has mostly open water. With the continuing rain and mild temperatures, the prospects for ice fishing in Door County don’t seem good for 2023.
How unusual is this? I dug into the MODIS archives and found an image of Lake Michigan from mid-January in 2022. Again, I had to sort through several days to find one clear enough to see the surface.
Although essentially all the northern Bay was ice free, there was a shelf of ice extending out from the shoreline from Fish Creek to Sturgeon Bay. The ice sheet had separated from the west shore, but on the day of this image, there was ice from Dykesville to Sturg. Last year was not a banner year for ice fishing on the Bay. Most of the guides did not get their shacks out into deep water until very late in January and many not until February. If you recall, the ice moved a lot last year causing several incidents where anglers needed to be rescued from ice that had detached from the shore. This ice season looks to be starting out even worse than last year.
However, a look at the MODIS images from 2021 and 2020 shows the ice conditions by mid-January in those years were very much like they are now. Notice the expanse of open water in these two images.
The good news in this is that we eventually did get out on the Bay those years. A review of my records show that I was catching whitefish near shore by mid to late January both in 2021 and 2020 and was in deep water (2-3 miles out from Sturgeon Bay) by mid-February. So, there is hope that, with some patience and a polar vortex, we might have the opportunity for some great catches on the Bay yet this season.
The bad news is that the trend for the last decade has not favored good ice fishing conditions on the Bay. Door County has a long tradition of ice fishing off the Green Bay shore. Early articles promoted the Door as a mecca for winter sports, including downhill skiing, snowmobiling and ice boating as well. Anecdotally, there are stories of the entire Green Bay being a solid sheet of ice each year, so much so that in 1906 they hauled an entire hotel across the ice from Marinette to Fish Creek. Try that now. Older anglers, including your humble writer, could count on good ice conditions by Christmas, New Years at the latest. That just has not been the case in recent memory. Do we have a future of deteriorating ice conditions and fewer ice fishing opportunities? Probably so.
The Earth’s average global temperature is increasing, the warming is well beyond the historical variations in temperature and the cause of the warming is anthropogenic, primarily due to the increase in carbon dioxide production. This trend is predicted to continue well past any of our lifetimes. This is beyond any reasonable scientific doubt and there is no need to discuss it in this space. While it is difficult to ascribe any specific weather event or seasonal variation to the overall phenomena of climate change, the long-term trend is clear. The air and the water in Door County will become warmer.
What is of concern here, of course, is will this affect how we fish in the future? The short answer is probably. Will the next year’s ice form early and cover the entire bay? Maybe, but probably not. Will the ice cover continue to be less each year until we may not have a significant ice fishing season on Green Bay? Probably. Each year, with few exceptions, has been warmer that the previous year for the last couple decades. Further, nighttime temperatures are increasing faster than daytime temps. We know that it is at night when much of our ice cover forms. This will result in less ice cover. It already has.
I was recently part of a group of concerned citizens that met in Ellison Bay under the auspices of The Clearing Folk School. The goal of the meeting was to start a discussion on the future impacts of climate warming on Door County: environmentally, socially and economically. The discussions were far ranging focused primarily on building resiliency in our county to mitigate any negative impacts. Much consideration was given to how the tourism industry will be affected. Of course, winter recreation in the county has changed considerably even in our lifetimes. Just drive past the former Nor-Ski Ridge ski hillnear Little Sweden south of Fish Creek or visit the site of the old ski jump in Peninsula State Park to remind yourself of that. Although Nordic skiing and snowmobiling are still popular pursuits in Door County, as the snow conditions deteriorate, these activities are being replaced by snow shoeing and recreational ATVs. Things change, so what will winter fishing look like in Door County in a warmer future?
We may have gotten a glimpse of our future when a local angler recently hauled in a 60-pound muskie off the shores of Door County. In a boat. In December. Now sure, die-hards (aka nuts) have always attempted to get out on the water in late Fall and early Spring targeting northerns, walleyes, smallmouth bass and brown trout. Perhaps these anglers were not crazy, but visionaries. Open water opportunities will, no doubt, increase in the future. Even now, as I gaze out my window at rain falling onto bare ground with temperature in the high 30’s, I wonder if my best chance to catch fish this winter might be in the Maggie Leigh, not drilling by a hole. We may be looking at a time in the not-too-distant future when marinas in the county will be open to anglers year-round. There may be more fish caught from Lunds and Rangers than from inside Frabills and Eskimos.
No one knows for sure when, or if, such a transformation will occur. I do know that I will continue to fish, in whatever way I can. Each winter I will try to get out on the ice. Perhaps now with a sense of urgency and appreciation of a fleeting opportunity.
